Once I've decided on my number, can I call it Schindler's List? 😁
I completely agree that vocabulary convergence in the transition space is a challenge.
I also agree about the two variables, but I interpret them slightly differently. I'm curious to see how this lands for you...
To start, Meadows said (paraphrased) "the system determines behavior." The most ubiquitous system we all use today is money. So, (the design of) money determines behavior.
Second, Clare Graves laid out three possibilities for the species in a 1974 paper, "Human Nature Prepares for a Momentous Leap." To paraphrase him, the three are Termination, Technofeudalism, and Transcendence (he used slightly more complex terminology, so this is my interpretation).
Termination = everything collapses
Technofeudalism = top-down monetary reform: CBDCs, stablecoins, BIS digital settlement
Transcendence = bottom-up bioregional demurrage currencies, networked together
I argue that all three are likely, dependent on individual choice. In other words, some will choose Termination, others Technofeudalism, and a very small number will choose Transcendence.
My simple claim is that the (individual) outcome depends on something as simple as which monetary system the individual chooses to accept. There is no such thing as a collective outcome. So, the population number isn't so much about how many survive, but how many land up in each category. (I make this simple claim based on a deep study of evolutionary biology, human coordination, and evolution of consciousness.)
So the question I would put on the dinner-table napkin is slightly different, but it still addresses the two variables: What monetary substrate are you betting on, and have you looked at what is already waiting in the wings (GENIUS Act, etc.)?
Once that answer is on the table, the timeline (my guess is closer to 8 years) and the population numbers become easier to track.
FWIW, my completely unscientific guess based on 8bn over the next 8 years is:
Termination = 1.5bn
Technofeudalism = 6bn
Transcendence = 0.5bn
Unless of course the current trajectory significantly changes.
Money is one of the (fundamental) tools for running civilisations. Once could easily rephrase the question towards, materials, education, food, energy, etc. All of these are necessary components that require deep re-architecture. But the shape of this architecture in each case depends on the assumptions of the trajectory: timeline + deaths.
The difference in our interpretation is "timeline to what." I see an economic timeline as far more imminent than an ecological one. And the impacts economically will be far more severe than any of the ecological impacts (in the short term).
Finally, thank you for being the catalyst and providing the space to allow me to express, somewhat imperfectly I admit, something I have been circling for decades, and that has been increasingly coming into focus for me.
The truest expression of our values and intent is through our behaviour. Behaviours are the bedrock of culture. What an incredible opportunity this gives us.
A further thought that arises regarding how do we integrate? What if, the underlying power and architecture of 'values and intent', IS the golden thread, that leads and expresses through a multiplicity of perspectives and projects, IS the glue that binds us, inexorably, in our human journey towards a shared destination?
Different why's and how's that merge into a collective whole and destination. Values and intent that are often implicit and I would argue, largely innate for those who have peeled away and healed their layers of conditioning, trauma and ego. The truths that 'feel' true and emerge from that inner work, and that are inherent in life itself.
What if, the subtle and bold 'architecture' of Values and Intent, perhaps even a shared consciousness, that enables us to see, feel, recognise and value all pieces of the whole puzzle; that builds trust in diversity, mutual support in complexity; that creates openness, humility and flexibility in the process of creation and feedback; that celebrates courage and vulnerability.
A natural blueprint perhaps, that IS the invisible energetic structure that all of this beautiful, diverse and powerful endeavour can integrate within. The acknowledgement, acceptance and celebration of what already exists, and is increasingly emerging in the field, will perhaps, create the space we really need, for true collaboration, deep listening and the power of interconnectedness.
Not to refine our assumptions about what will or may result from the values and intents of those with the artificial structural power we have given them, but to reclaim that power and choose, what so many of us deeply want and perceive is possible for humanity and the earth. Not just in the future, but in the now, together. It is all there waiting for us, if we have the courage and clarity to choose it 🙏
Interesting questions indeed. I need to sit with them for a bit in my own work. Thank you for the challenge.
I would also like to offer a slightly different perspective on this. I feel there is a passivity to these questions that is agitating something within me. A phrase from my business days pops to mind, assuming, makes an ass out of you and of me.
As well as 'what do we think or assume', is another question 'what do we want?' What are we prepared to work towards? The actual trajectory will inevitably depend on those individual and collective choices. Much like the transcendence described above.
The axis I often think about, is how do we both address, prevent or stem the inherent harms of our current civilisation/system while concurrently building civilisations that are inherently pro-life, enriching and evolutionary. Ones that do no harm, that value what is already here naturally, if we choose to see it, and work to restore, maintain and steward it, rather than control and 'enhance' it.
We can build resilient local communities based in nature, but how do we stop the geo-engineering, pollution and forever chemicals destroying the ecosystems we rely on, for example? How do we prevent the centralised power systems from poisoning us all without our consent? It has to be a both / and approach I think, and in some ways, these questions or 'assumptions' rather, are actually getting in the way.
The bigger and most important challenge, I would offer, is how do we integrate all of the many pieces of the puzzle and generate genuine collaboration which weaves many paths to the same destination, rather than labels, restricts and divides.
I feel coherent values and intent are actually the keys to the future.
That alignment unlocks multiplicity, diversity, uniqueness and coherence, able to recognise and support each other within a whole, while acknowledging there are many paths and roles that we need to explore, hold and value in our collective journey to this destination. Much like a mycelial network supports, sustains and nourishes a diverse expression of life, within real-time evolution, guided by deep and subtle feedback loops and integrated energy processes, over vast distances.
What if, projects that initially look and feel like different and separate, if we zoom out, are actually a Web, a diversity of many paths, experiments and learnings that do have the power to take us to our collective dream of the destination? The real question is how do we integrate?
My own work identified the systemic conditions that are keeping us locked in dysfunction, where whole and balanced and natural expression are almost impossible because of the system, and humanity's underlying set of inherently good values are consistently thwarted, manipulated and undermined.
These are hierarchy as an organising principle and the mechanism by which much of this distorted pattern is disseminated and held in place. Centralised governments and legislation (essentially another hierarchy) that prevent us from making individual choices by imposing rules without consent.
The third and most powerful is the money system and concept of profit, which is essentially another hierarchy. A pattern, mindset, language and set of underlying values that make extraction, power and control inevitable. How much capital is available without any return required?
The most dangerous assumption we are all making imho, is that money and economy are necessary for a species to thrive. It is a man made artificial concept and an illusion that we have given our power away to.
I understand why, it is our reality, the only way we have ever known, for thousands of years. But what if it didn't exist? What if we chose to step out of it and develop true interdependence again? With eachother and the earth? To reintegrate with the Web of life, instead of holding ourselves artificially separate from it, superior to it, and choose to be in interconnected relationship with it rather than in singular 'contracts' with it.
Money represents human and nature's energy, time, ingenuity, intuition, capacity, passion, skills and value. Whether you're a maker or a mystic, a forest or an ocean, there is inherent value and energy in those interwoven processes and roles.
Do we really need man-made artificial tokens to represent that? To represent life? To see it, feel it, value it, to be in awe of it's beauty, power and wisdom. Tokens which reduce life to fragments and reduce value to gains in the economic system? Tokens which have no ability to value the whole, the interdependent webs, the real richness of life and relationships that power life and experience? Tokens that accumulate at the top of interlocking centralised hierarchies and which have driven the destruction (at many obvious and subtle levels) of the earth, humanity and the power inherent in culture and language.
Money doesn't actually 'do' anything. Human beings and nature do all that. Money is simply an artificial net, or translation layer, that sits over the top of all that, to extract, manipulate and wield artificial power 'over' humanity and the earth. A control mechanism that disintermediates, captures and forces. An idea we have been conditioned to believe is necessary for life to survive and thrive. It is, in fact, the opposite.
Real power comes from within, 'with' eachother and engaged 'in' the Web of life. The question is, will we allow this Waitiko, this egregor, this mind set conditioning, these artificial tokens to continue to have power over us, or will we choose to reclaim our own nature and environment, and recognise the very real power we have together, as an interdependent Web of life, engaged in the richness of many to many relationships, rather than tokenised contracts?
Once I've decided on my number, can I call it Schindler's List? 😁
I completely agree that vocabulary convergence in the transition space is a challenge.
I also agree about the two variables, but I interpret them slightly differently. I'm curious to see how this lands for you...
To start, Meadows said (paraphrased) "the system determines behavior." The most ubiquitous system we all use today is money. So, (the design of) money determines behavior.
Second, Clare Graves laid out three possibilities for the species in a 1974 paper, "Human Nature Prepares for a Momentous Leap." To paraphrase him, the three are Termination, Technofeudalism, and Transcendence (he used slightly more complex terminology, so this is my interpretation).
Termination = everything collapses
Technofeudalism = top-down monetary reform: CBDCs, stablecoins, BIS digital settlement
Transcendence = bottom-up bioregional demurrage currencies, networked together
I argue that all three are likely, dependent on individual choice. In other words, some will choose Termination, others Technofeudalism, and a very small number will choose Transcendence.
My simple claim is that the (individual) outcome depends on something as simple as which monetary system the individual chooses to accept. There is no such thing as a collective outcome. So, the population number isn't so much about how many survive, but how many land up in each category. (I make this simple claim based on a deep study of evolutionary biology, human coordination, and evolution of consciousness.)
So the question I would put on the dinner-table napkin is slightly different, but it still addresses the two variables: What monetary substrate are you betting on, and have you looked at what is already waiting in the wings (GENIUS Act, etc.)?
Once that answer is on the table, the timeline (my guess is closer to 8 years) and the population numbers become easier to track.
FWIW, my completely unscientific guess based on 8bn over the next 8 years is:
Termination = 1.5bn
Technofeudalism = 6bn
Transcendence = 0.5bn
Unless of course the current trajectory significantly changes.
Money is one of the (fundamental) tools for running civilisations. Once could easily rephrase the question towards, materials, education, food, energy, etc. All of these are necessary components that require deep re-architecture. But the shape of this architecture in each case depends on the assumptions of the trajectory: timeline + deaths.
The difference in our interpretation is "timeline to what." I see an economic timeline as far more imminent than an ecological one. And the impacts economically will be far more severe than any of the ecological impacts (in the short term).
Finally, thank you for being the catalyst and providing the space to allow me to express, somewhat imperfectly I admit, something I have been circling for decades, and that has been increasingly coming into focus for me.
The truest expression of our values and intent is through our behaviour. Behaviours are the bedrock of culture. What an incredible opportunity this gives us.
With love, gratitude and respect 💖🙏
A further thought that arises regarding how do we integrate? What if, the underlying power and architecture of 'values and intent', IS the golden thread, that leads and expresses through a multiplicity of perspectives and projects, IS the glue that binds us, inexorably, in our human journey towards a shared destination?
Different why's and how's that merge into a collective whole and destination. Values and intent that are often implicit and I would argue, largely innate for those who have peeled away and healed their layers of conditioning, trauma and ego. The truths that 'feel' true and emerge from that inner work, and that are inherent in life itself.
What if, the subtle and bold 'architecture' of Values and Intent, perhaps even a shared consciousness, that enables us to see, feel, recognise and value all pieces of the whole puzzle; that builds trust in diversity, mutual support in complexity; that creates openness, humility and flexibility in the process of creation and feedback; that celebrates courage and vulnerability.
A natural blueprint perhaps, that IS the invisible energetic structure that all of this beautiful, diverse and powerful endeavour can integrate within. The acknowledgement, acceptance and celebration of what already exists, and is increasingly emerging in the field, will perhaps, create the space we really need, for true collaboration, deep listening and the power of interconnectedness.
Not to refine our assumptions about what will or may result from the values and intents of those with the artificial structural power we have given them, but to reclaim that power and choose, what so many of us deeply want and perceive is possible for humanity and the earth. Not just in the future, but in the now, together. It is all there waiting for us, if we have the courage and clarity to choose it 🙏
Interesting questions indeed. I need to sit with them for a bit in my own work. Thank you for the challenge.
I would also like to offer a slightly different perspective on this. I feel there is a passivity to these questions that is agitating something within me. A phrase from my business days pops to mind, assuming, makes an ass out of you and of me.
As well as 'what do we think or assume', is another question 'what do we want?' What are we prepared to work towards? The actual trajectory will inevitably depend on those individual and collective choices. Much like the transcendence described above.
The axis I often think about, is how do we both address, prevent or stem the inherent harms of our current civilisation/system while concurrently building civilisations that are inherently pro-life, enriching and evolutionary. Ones that do no harm, that value what is already here naturally, if we choose to see it, and work to restore, maintain and steward it, rather than control and 'enhance' it.
We can build resilient local communities based in nature, but how do we stop the geo-engineering, pollution and forever chemicals destroying the ecosystems we rely on, for example? How do we prevent the centralised power systems from poisoning us all without our consent? It has to be a both / and approach I think, and in some ways, these questions or 'assumptions' rather, are actually getting in the way.
The bigger and most important challenge, I would offer, is how do we integrate all of the many pieces of the puzzle and generate genuine collaboration which weaves many paths to the same destination, rather than labels, restricts and divides.
I feel coherent values and intent are actually the keys to the future.
That alignment unlocks multiplicity, diversity, uniqueness and coherence, able to recognise and support each other within a whole, while acknowledging there are many paths and roles that we need to explore, hold and value in our collective journey to this destination. Much like a mycelial network supports, sustains and nourishes a diverse expression of life, within real-time evolution, guided by deep and subtle feedback loops and integrated energy processes, over vast distances.
What if, projects that initially look and feel like different and separate, if we zoom out, are actually a Web, a diversity of many paths, experiments and learnings that do have the power to take us to our collective dream of the destination? The real question is how do we integrate?
My own work identified the systemic conditions that are keeping us locked in dysfunction, where whole and balanced and natural expression are almost impossible because of the system, and humanity's underlying set of inherently good values are consistently thwarted, manipulated and undermined.
These are hierarchy as an organising principle and the mechanism by which much of this distorted pattern is disseminated and held in place. Centralised governments and legislation (essentially another hierarchy) that prevent us from making individual choices by imposing rules without consent.
The third and most powerful is the money system and concept of profit, which is essentially another hierarchy. A pattern, mindset, language and set of underlying values that make extraction, power and control inevitable. How much capital is available without any return required?
The most dangerous assumption we are all making imho, is that money and economy are necessary for a species to thrive. It is a man made artificial concept and an illusion that we have given our power away to.
I understand why, it is our reality, the only way we have ever known, for thousands of years. But what if it didn't exist? What if we chose to step out of it and develop true interdependence again? With eachother and the earth? To reintegrate with the Web of life, instead of holding ourselves artificially separate from it, superior to it, and choose to be in interconnected relationship with it rather than in singular 'contracts' with it.
Money represents human and nature's energy, time, ingenuity, intuition, capacity, passion, skills and value. Whether you're a maker or a mystic, a forest or an ocean, there is inherent value and energy in those interwoven processes and roles.
Do we really need man-made artificial tokens to represent that? To represent life? To see it, feel it, value it, to be in awe of it's beauty, power and wisdom. Tokens which reduce life to fragments and reduce value to gains in the economic system? Tokens which have no ability to value the whole, the interdependent webs, the real richness of life and relationships that power life and experience? Tokens that accumulate at the top of interlocking centralised hierarchies and which have driven the destruction (at many obvious and subtle levels) of the earth, humanity and the power inherent in culture and language.
Money doesn't actually 'do' anything. Human beings and nature do all that. Money is simply an artificial net, or translation layer, that sits over the top of all that, to extract, manipulate and wield artificial power 'over' humanity and the earth. A control mechanism that disintermediates, captures and forces. An idea we have been conditioned to believe is necessary for life to survive and thrive. It is, in fact, the opposite.
Real power comes from within, 'with' eachother and engaged 'in' the Web of life. The question is, will we allow this Waitiko, this egregor, this mind set conditioning, these artificial tokens to continue to have power over us, or will we choose to reclaim our own nature and environment, and recognise the very real power we have together, as an interdependent Web of life, engaged in the richness of many to many relationships, rather than tokenised contracts?